Jumper cables, please

(27 Jan) I just received an email from a mutual fund company which I hold in very high regard that was headlined, "global economy awaits benefits of massive surplus strategy." That's how I came up with today's title - plus the weather helped... I'll come back to this.

Let's see. Prior to the opening of Tuesday's market, we were told that consumer confidence had fallen to the worst levels since 1967, when they first started keeping these scores. We were then informed that, in the country's top 20 cities by population, the average home price was down 18.2% from the same time a year ago. Omigoodness. How much worse can it get? And then, on top of all that, we continued to see the results of the last quarter of 2008 in terms of corporate earnings being rolled out. But wait - not all of them were as bad as the tea leaf readers thought they might be. Others, to be sure, were "in line" - that's Wall Street for "I told you so."

So, what happened to the stock market - the national thermometer that helps us know how we're feeling every day. What's this? In spite of a rolling barrage of horrible news, it actually managed a gain? In my view, that's due to the fact that the markets are leading indicators - not rear view reviewers.

Seeing it makes it so

I know that, for the next so long, we're going to be rolling in less than good news that is due to all that has already happened. In spite of people being aware that this stuff is forthcoming, its actually hitting the light of day makes it seem more ominous to them somehow. I get that.

My contention is that a whole lot of folks in this country need to, as Zig Ziglar used to say, "get a check-up from the neck up." If you're mired in the woe is me point of view, if you actually believe what the news is saying - you're part of the problem.

I know that either of us just saying, "oh, it's all right" isn't going to get it done. But looking for the positive things that already exist and building on them is the key to getting our feet under us again. I just can't be a pessimist - I see no reason or justification for it.

What about the banks, the credit crunch, the worry du jour?

Well, what about them? Folks way above my pay grade are working their important parts just about off 24/7 getting some solutions that will work in today's world. I have complete faith that they aren't going to stop until they get it done. As they're working now, the fringes of the economy are starting to pick up. The, "yeah, I can do that" crowd starts edging out the group all tricked out in ashes and sackcloth. People with vision are saying, that is one fine company there - I think I can make a little money riding along with them.

They take the risk of ambiguity over the curse of certainty. They're the builders, the dreamers, the doers. We've always had them - seems like we've always had more than most anyone else. That's how we got to where we are.

That brings us to the jumper cables.

Foregone conclusion

In this case, I'm referring to the fact that folks such as I've mentioned have already have already begun the resurgence that is beginning to bring the markets higher. The conclusion is that we don't need near the amount of "help" the politicians are getting ready to throw at us. We're already on the way to recovery. We don't really need jumper cables.

However, there is enough of this pervasive gloom out there that many need some symbol to tell them "it's going to be all right." This symbol is the pouring in of money - some of which may actually get to the citizens - to "get the economy going again." When this occurs, the mindsets will begin to change and we'll see movement.

Here's the catch. Most of this money for the vaunted infrastructure and other needed programs - sarcasm intended - will take a couple years to actually work into the system. This is the government after all. By then, the inflation monster will be peeking around the corners. The same politicians who pumped all this money will now be looking for a way to control its effect... Stay tuned for that.

The markets - real estate and equities - are beginning their resurgence. I'm not given to know when it'll be official but, for those who can deal with that particular level of ambiguity, I think you ought to consider getting in now before you're chasing the market train out of the station...